Summary
- 22 stocks are within one day's normal move of a moving-average cross at the next close: 18 bullish and 4 bearish (Exhibit 2).
- 7 of the 22 carry Odds Next Close of 90% or more. The odds describe the cross, not the price; next-day Confidence for these setups sits near a coin flip.
- 5 report earnings within five trading days (SBUX, TRI, PODD, ROK, EXPE), which can move the price more than the cross itself.
- Signals logged Oct 26 to Oct 28 returned -$355 on a 1-day hold across 149 signals ($1,000 each, before costs); 52% closed in the signal's direction (Exhibit 4).
- Watch-list calls so far: 52 of 84 predicted crosses happened at the next close, against about 53 implied by the odds (Exhibit 3).
Watch List: May Cross at the Next Close
Most Likely to Cross
Highest Odds Next Close; the cross is close to certain.
- UPS▲ Bullish99%
- FERG▲ Bullish99%
- AEE▲ Bullish99%
Closest Calls
Odds near even; the next close decides it.
- HD▲ Bullish45%+0.3% to cross
- ROK▲ Bullish45%+0.0% to cross
- MCHP▲ Bullish64%-0.1% to cross
Earnings Ahead
Report within five trading days.
- SBUX▲ Bullishin 1d
- TRI▲ Bullishin 3d
- PODD▲ Bullishin 4d
- ROK▲ Bullishin 5d
- EXPE▲ Bullishin 5d
Source: CrossoverSignal watch list.
Tap a column heading to sort; tap again to reverse.
| Stock | Direction | Close | Cross If | Odds Next Close | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FERGearnings in 7d | ▲ Bullish | 240.45 | ≥ 227.93-5.2% | 99% | 51.5% |
| UPSearnings in 63d | ▲ Bullish | 107.33 | ≥ 99.87-7.0% | 99% | 51.5% |
| SBUXEarnings 1d | ▲ Bullish | 105.51 | ≥ 101.26-4.0% | 99% | 51.5% |
| AEEearnings in 6d | ▲ Bullish | 110.21 | ≥ 105.45-4.3% | 99% | 50.9% |
| BXearnings in 65d | ▼ Bearish | 120.60 | ≤ 125.59+4.1% | 93% | 46.1% |
| INVHearnings in 80d | ▼ Bearish | 26.64 | ≤ 26.96+1.2% | 93% | 46.1% |
| NVDAearnings in 14d | ▼ Bearish | 213.66 | ≤ 218.99+2.5% | 92% | 46.4% |
| TRIEarnings 3d | ▲ Bullish | 116.35 | ≥ 113.29-2.6% | 86% | 50.9% |
| SLBearnings in 61d | ▲ Bullish | 53.81 | ≥ 52.89-1.7% | 83% | 51.5% |
| FEearnings in 79d | ▲ Bullish | 46.83 | ≥ 46.61-0.5% | 64% | 51.5% |
| MCHPearnings in 6d | ▲ Bullish | 81.12 | ≥ 81.03-0.1% | 64% | 51.5% |
| PODDEarnings 4d | ▲ Bullish | 152.50 | ≥ 151.78-0.5% | 64% | 51.5% |
| HDearnings in 13d | ▲ Bullish | 328.98 | ≥ 329.86+0.3% | 45% | 51.5% |
| ROKEarnings 5d | ▲ Bullish | 451.40 | ≥ 451.55+0.0% | 45% | 51.5% |
| ADBEearnings in 30d | ▼ Bearish | 248.12 | ≤ 245.08-1.2% | 32% | 46.4% |
| SPGearnings in 6d | ▲ Bullish | 215.72 | ≥ 217.12+0.6% | 19% | 51.5% |
| LUVearnings in 65d | ▲ Bullish | 43.68 | ≥ 44.17+1.1% | 19% | 51.5% |
| ROSTearnings in 16d | ▲ Bullish | 232.30 | ≥ 234.28+0.9% | 19% | 51.5% |
| KIMearnings in 75d | ▲ Bullish | 24.42 | ≥ 24.63+0.9% | 19% | 51.5% |
| DHIearnings in 58d | ▲ Bullish | 146.53 | ≥ 149.29+1.9% | 19% | 51.5% |
| EXPEEarnings 5d | ▲ Bullish | 282.73 | ≥ 288.21+1.9% | 19% | 51.5% |
| VMCearnings in 78d | ▲ Bullish | 280.31 | ≥ 283.14+1.0% | 19% | 51.5% |
Odds Next Close: the chance the moving averages cross at the next close. It describes the moving averages, not the price: 99% means the cross is nearly certain, not that the price will rise or fall.
Confidence: how often past setups like this one closed the next day in the direction of the cross, across about 1,000 US stocks over 12 years. Around 50% is a coin flip.
Cross If: the next closing price at which the cross happens, and its distance from the last close. Earnings marks a report within five trading days.
Source: CrossoverSignal; daily prices as of the close of Thursday, October 29.
Track Record
Crossed at the next closeAverage Odds Next Close
100%50%0%
Under 50%
27% crossed
odds 24%, 30 calls
50% to 79%
60% crossed
odds 62%, 15 calls
80% to 94%
79% crossed
odds 88%, 19 calls
95% and up
100% crossed
odds 99%, 20 calls
84 watch-list calls since launch, grouped by their Odds Next Close. When the bar reaches the brass line, the odds matched what happened.
Source: CrossoverSignal forward log.
| Holding Period | Signals | Win Rate | Reached +1% | Total Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overnight | 149 | 46% | 14% | -$280 |
| Day Trade | 149 | 57% | 22% | -$66 |
| 1-Day Hold | 149 | 52% | 27% | -$355 |
| 3-Day Hold | 53 | 53% | 36% | +$13 |
Hypothetical $1,000 per signal, long for bullish and short for bearish, before costs and slippage.
Source: CrossoverSignal forward log.
-$487
Oct 26
Mon, 53 signals
-$7
Oct 27
Tue, 45 signals
+$139
Oct 28
Wed, 51 signals
Total for all signals logged that day, $1,000 each, before costs.
Source: CrossoverSignal forward log.
| Direction | Signals | Win Rate (Live) | Total Result | Backtest Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish (long) | 84 | 58% | +$10 | 51.3% |
| Bearish (short) | 65 | 43% | -$366 | 47.0% |
Win Rate (Live) is this period's result; Backtest Confidence is the long-run rate for the same signal types.
Source: CrossoverSignal forward log and backtest, 2014 to 2026.
Tap a day to open it.
Thursday, October 2960 signals Scored after the next close
| Market Check That Day | Next Morning | Overnight | Day Trade | 1-Day | 3-Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mixed* | Bullish* | - | - | - | - |
| Stock | Dir. | Overnight | Day Trade | 1-Day | 3-Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | ▼ | - | - | - | - |
| ADBE | ▼ | - | - | - | - |
| UPS | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| FERG | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| SBUX | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| SLB | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| FE | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| PODD | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| MCHP | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| ROK | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| HD | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| LUV | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| ROST | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| SPG | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| VMC | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| EXPE | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| DHI | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| KIM | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| AEE | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| TRI | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| BX | ▼ | - | - | - | - |
| INVH | ▼ | - | - | - | - |
| ABT | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| ALNY | ▼ | - | - | - | - |
| AMT | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| AMZN | ▼ | - | - | - | - |
| AOS | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| COST | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| DD | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| DLR | ▼ | - | - | - | - |
| DOV | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| DVA | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| EBAY | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| ECHO | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| ETR | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| EXC | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| EXE | ▼ | - | - | - | - |
| EXR | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| FTNT | ▼ | - | - | - | - |
| GOOGL | ▼ | - | - | - | - |
| HAL | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| ICE | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| KEYS | ▼ | - | - | - | - |
| LHX | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| LNT | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| MLM | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| MO | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| MRVL | ▼ | - | - | - | - |
| NCLH | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| NXPI | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| OMC | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| PPG | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| PSA | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| ROP | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| SBAC | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| TSN | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| TT | ▼ | - | - | - | - |
| TXT | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| TYL | ▲ | - | - | - | - |
| VST | ▼ | - | - | - | - |
Wednesday, October 2851 signals 1-Day +$139
| Market Check That Day | Next Morning | Overnight | Day Trade | 1-Day | 3-Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mixed* | Mixed* | +$120 | +$21 | +$139 | - |
| Stock | Dir. | Overnight | Day Trade | 1-Day | 3-Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXPI ✓ | ▲ | -$9 | +$66 | +$57 | - |
| AMZN ✓ | ▼ | +$30 | +$13 | +$42 | - |
| TT ✓ | ▼ | +$60 | -$22 | +$39 | - |
| EXR ✓ | ▲ | +$13 | +$22 | +$36 | - |
| HCA | ▲ | +$13 | +$19 | +$32 | - |
| IT | ▲ | -$18 | +$46 | +$27 | - |
| LYB | ▼ | +$0 | +$26 | +$26 | - |
| EXC ✓ | ▲ | +$14 | +$12 | +$25 | - |
| PSA ✓ | ▲ | +$13 | +$10 | +$23 | - |
| ROP ✓ | ▲ | +$5 | +$15 | +$20 | - |
| ETR ✓ | ▲ | +$11 | +$8 | +$19 | - |
| EFX | ▲ | +$9 | +$10 | +$19 | - |
| LNT ✓ | ▲ | +$10 | +$9 | +$19 | - |
| ABT ✓ | ▲ | +$11 | +$8 | +$19 | - |
| AON | ▲ | +$6 | +$13 | +$19 | - |
| MCHP | ▲ | -$5 | +$23 | +$19 | - |
| NOC | ▲ | +$19 | -$2 | +$17 | - |
| KEYS ✓ | ▼ | +$10 | +$7 | +$17 | - |
| UPS ✗ | ▲ | +$5 | +$11 | +$16 | - |
| TSN ✓ | ▲ | +$10 | +$6 | +$16 | - |
| DD ✓ | ▲ | +$2 | +$12 | +$14 | - |
| COST ✓ | ▲ | +$10 | +$3 | +$14 | - |
| PPG ✓ | ▲ | +$5 | +$8 | +$13 | - |
| VST ✓ | ▼ | +$4 | +$9 | +$12 | - |
| EXE ✓ | ▼ | -$4 | +$16 | +$12 | - |
| AMT ✓ | ▲ | +$11 | +$0 | +$12 | - |
| DOV ✓ | ▲ | +$6 | +$6 | +$11 | - |
| WMB | ▲ | +$10 | -$2 | +$8 | - |
| NVDA ✗ | ▼ | +$5 | +$3 | +$8 | - |
| FFIV | ▼ | +$15 | -$10 | +$6 | - |
| ODFL | ▼ | -$17 | +$22 | +$6 | - |
| HAL ✓ | ▲ | -$1 | +$5 | +$4 | - |
| BKR | ▼ | +$6 | -$3 | +$3 | - |
| CHRW | ▼ | -$9 | +$10 | +$1 | - |
| SBAC ✓ | ▲ | +$5 | -$4 | +$1 | - |
| GS | ▼ | -$13 | +$10 | -$3 | - |
| GEV | ▼ | +$21 | -$32 | -$11 | - |
| HIG ✗ | ▼ | -$15 | -$1 | -$16 | - |
| UAL | ▼ | -$12 | -$5 | -$17 | - |
| DLR ✓ | ▼ | -$9 | -$9 | -$17 | - |
| ROST | ▼ | -$15 | -$4 | -$19 | - |
| SOLV | ▼ | -$5 | -$16 | -$21 | - |
| PSA | ▼ | -$13 | -$10 | -$23 | - |
| ORLY | ▲ | +$7 | -$33 | -$26 | - |
| WELL ✗ | ▼ | -$14 | -$13 | -$26 | - |
| GE ✗ | ▼ | -$6 | -$34 | -$40 | - |
| OMC | ▼ | -$6 | -$34 | -$41 | - |
| APO | ▼ | -$17 | -$27 | -$45 | - |
| SW | ▼ | -$4 | -$50 | -$55 | - |
| DASH | ▼ | -$57 | +$1 | -$56 | - |
| BAX | ▲ | +$21 | -$96 | -$77 | - |
Tuesday, October 2745 signals 1-Day -$7
| Market Check That Day | Next Morning | Overnight | Day Trade | 1-Day | 3-Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mixed* | Mixed* | -$168 | +$166 | -$7 | - |
| Stock | Dir. | Overnight | Day Trade | 1-Day | 3-Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBHT | ▼ | +$9 | +$29 | +$37 | - |
| PNR | ▲ | +$7 | +$26 | +$33 | - |
| GEV ✓ | ▼ | +$21 | -$2 | +$19 | - |
| D | ▼ | -$0 | +$17 | +$17 | - |
| SOLV ✓ | ▼ | -$1 | +$15 | +$14 | - |
| UAL ✓ | ▼ | +$4 | +$9 | +$12 | - |
| OMC ✓ | ▼ | +$6 | +$6 | +$12 | - |
| ROST ✓ | ▼ | +$9 | +$0 | +$9 | - |
| EXPE | ▼ | +$9 | -$0 | +$9 | - |
| PYPL | ▲ | -$13 | +$21 | +$8 | - |
| PSA ✓ | ▼ | -$0 | +$8 | +$8 | - |
| COIN | ▲ | -$24 | +$33 | +$8 | - |
| APO ✓ | ▼ | +$1 | +$6 | +$7 | - |
| DASH ✓ | ▼ | +$0 | +$6 | +$6 | - |
| NI | ▲ | +$0 | +$6 | +$6 | - |
| LYB ✓ | ▼ | +$2 | +$2 | +$4 | - |
| SBAC ✗ | ▲ | -$11 | +$14 | +$3 | - |
| NOC ✓ | ▲ | -$6 | +$9 | +$3 | - |
| WMB ✓ | ▲ | +$4 | -$2 | +$2 | - |
| EFX ✓ | ▲ | -$10 | +$12 | +$2 | - |
| KEYS ✗ | ▼ | -$11 | +$13 | +$2 | - |
| GD | ▼ | +$6 | -$5 | +$2 | - |
| EXR ✓ | ▲ | +$13 | -$12 | +$1 | - |
| AMT ✓ | ▲ | -$10 | +$10 | -$0 | - |
| CDNS | ▲ | -$4 | +$2 | -$2 | - |
| ABT ✗ | ▲ | -$12 | +$8 | -$4 | - |
| ETR ✗ | ▲ | +$2 | -$8 | -$5 | - |
| ADBE ✗ | ▼ | +$13 | -$19 | -$6 | - |
| AMZN ✗ | ▼ | +$0 | -$6 | -$6 | - |
| MCHP ✓ | ▲ | -$11 | +$4 | -$7 | - |
| AEE | ▲ | -$3 | -$3 | -$7 | - |
| MCO ✗ | ▼ | +$1 | -$8 | -$7 | - |
| TSN ✗ | ▲ | -$8 | +$1 | -$7 | - |
| NXPI ✗ | ▲ | -$61 | +$57 | -$7 | - |
| IT ✓ | ▲ | -$14 | +$6 | -$8 | - |
| CNP | ▲ | $0 | -$9 | -$9 | - |
| EXPE ✗ | ▲ | -$9 | +$0 | -$9 | - |
| COST ✗ | ▲ | -$8 | -$1 | -$9 | - |
| LNT ✗ | ▲ | -$2 | -$8 | -$10 | - |
| ATO | ▲ | -$3 | -$8 | -$11 | - |
| GS ✓ | ▼ | -$9 | -$6 | -$15 | - |
| EME ✓ | ▼ | -$25 | +$6 | -$18 | - |
| CNC | ▲ | -$10 | -$15 | -$24 | - |
| UHS | ▲ | -$13 | -$16 | -$29 | - |
| EXE | ▲ | $0 | -$32 | -$32 | - |
Monday, October 2653 signals 1-Day -$487
| Market Check That Day | Next Morning | Overnight | Day Trade | 1-Day | 3-Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mixed* | Mixed* | -$231 | -$252 | -$487 | +$13 |
| Stock | Dir. | Overnight | Day Trade | 1-Day | 3-Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPE ✓ | ▼ | +$2 | +$19 | +$21 | +$4 |
| CNP ✓ | ▲ | +$12 | +$7 | +$19 | +$25 |
| NSC | ▲ | +$0 | +$17 | +$17 | +$25 |
| TDY ✓ | ▲ | +$5 | +$9 | +$15 | +$50 |
| FTV | ▲ | +$2 | +$12 | +$14 | +$83 |
| GPC | ▼ | +$5 | +$7 | +$12 | +$7 |
| COIN ✓ | ▲ | +$5 | +$5 | +$9 | +$6 |
| JNJ | ▲ | -$4 | +$13 | +$9 | +$33 |
| PPL | ▲ | +$1 | +$6 | +$7 | +$20 |
| EXE ✓ | ▲ | +$2 | +$4 | +$6 | -$38 |
| AEE ✓ | ▲ | -$1 | +$7 | +$6 | +$20 |
| GD ✓ | ▼ | +$3 | +$3 | +$6 | -$39 |
| NI ✓ | ▲ | +$3 | +$0 | +$4 | +$30 |
| XEL | ▲ | -$2 | +$6 | +$4 | +$15 |
| DUK | ▲ | -$2 | +$5 | +$3 | +$12 |
| EW | ▲ | -$4 | +$7 | +$3 | +$43 |
| ULTA | ▲ | +$2 | +$1 | +$2 | +$37 |
| AOS | ▲ | +$1 | +$1 | +$2 | +$26 |
| ATO ✓ | ▲ | -$0 | +$1 | +$0 | -$1 |
| EME ✗ | ▼ | -$14 | +$13 | -$1 | -$35 |
| ITW | ▲ | -$14 | +$13 | -$1 | +$19 |
| LYB ✗ | ▼ | +$7 | -$9 | -$1 | +$29 |
| LDOS | ▲ | -$10 | +$9 | -$2 | +$8 |
| L | ▲ | -$3 | -$1 | -$4 | +$2 |
| D ✓ | ▼ | -$4 | +$0 | -$4 | -$0 |
| FRT | ▼ | -$0 | -$4 | -$4 | -$20 |
| T | ▼ | +$3 | -$7 | -$4 | -$3 |
| MELI | ▼ | -$21 | +$13 | -$7 | +$5 |
| GOOG | ▼ | -$1 | -$8 | -$8 | +$101 |
| COIN | ▼ | -$5 | -$5 | -$9 | -$6 |
| TSN ✗ | ▲ | -$8 | -$4 | -$12 | -$3 |
| DASH ✗ | ▼ | -$2 | -$11 | -$13 | -$63 |
| TT | ▼ | -$15 | +$1 | -$13 | +$53 |
| EFX ✗ | ▲ | +$9 | -$25 | -$16 | +$5 |
| AMZN ✗ | ▼ | -$5 | -$11 | -$16 | +$21 |
| ALL | ▲ | -$6 | -$10 | -$17 | -$0 |
| ABT ✗ | ▲ | -$20 | +$3 | -$17 | -$3 |
| HIG ✗ | ▲ | -$14 | -$4 | -$18 | -$29 |
| VZ | ▼ | +$2 | -$22 | -$19 | -$13 |
| NEM | ▼ | -$4 | -$16 | -$20 | -$13 |
| MCO | ▲ | +$13 | -$34 | -$22 | +$9 |
| AMT ✗ | ▲ | -$9 | -$14 | -$24 | -$13 |
| NOC ✗ | ▲ | -$5 | -$21 | -$25 | -$5 |
| MSCI | ▲ | +$8 | -$33 | -$26 | +$1 |
| SHW ✗ | ▲ | -$58 | +$33 | -$27 | -$15 |
| KLAC | ▼ | -$18 | -$12 | -$30 | -$122 |
| KEYS ✗ | ▼ | -$19 | -$11 | -$31 | -$12 |
| GE | ▼ | -$10 | -$22 | -$32 | -$85 |
| JBHT ✓ | ▼ | -$8 | -$26 | -$33 | +$11 |
| IT ✗ | ▲ | -$14 | -$30 | -$44 | -$26 |
| UHS ✓ | ▲ | +$9 | -$53 | -$45 | -$49 |
| GEV ✗ | ▼ | -$19 | -$28 | -$47 | -$39 |
| PAYX ✗ | ▲ | -$6 | -$50 | -$56 | -$55 |
Source: CrossoverSignal forward log.
Definitions
- Direction
- Bullish when the faster moving average is about to cross above the slower one; bearish when it is about to cross below. Results are measured long for bullish signals and short for bearish signals.
- Cross If
- The next closing price at which the cross happens (at or above for bullish, at or below for bearish), and how far that is from the last close.
- Odds Next Close
- The chance the stock's moving averages cross at the next close. It describes the moving averages, not the price: 99% means the cross is nearly certain, not that the price will rise or fall.
- Confidence
- How often past setups like this one closed the next day in the direction of the cross (higher for bullish, lower for bearish), across about 1,000 US stocks over 12 years. Around 50% is a coin flip.
- Win Rate
- Share of logged signals that closed in the signal's direction over the holding period.
- Reached +1%
- Share of logged signals that gained at least 1% in the signal's direction over the holding period.
- Holding periods
- Overnight: from the signal-day close to the next open. Day Trade: from the next open to the next close. 1-Day and 3-Day Hold: from the signal-day close.
- ✓ / ✗
- A watch-list stock whose predicted cross did / did not happen at the next close.
- Market check
- The morning market reading (Bullish, Bearish, Mixed or Risk-Off) from breadth, uptrend, macro regime and market-top analysis; * marks a reading rebuilt from a replay of that day's data.
Important Disclosures
This report is for research and education only. It is not investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Results shown are hypothetical, assume $1,000 per signal and exclude commissions, slippage and taxes. Past results, live or backtested, do not guarantee future results. Data may contain errors or delays.